DepEd Enrollment SY 2024-25: Comprehensive K-12 Enrollment Data Analysis & Key Findings

Explore the detailed analysis of DepEd Enrollment SY 2024-25 results for K-12 education. Review enrollment distribution by level, regional performance, gender parity indices, school sector analysis, SHS track/strand preferences, and historical enrollment trends across the Philippines.

Executive Summary

The Department of Education's enrollment data for School Year 2024-2025 reveals significant patterns and trends across the Philippine K-12 education system. This comprehensive analysis examines enrollment data from 60,129 schools serving 26,400,182 learners nationwide, providing insights critical for educational policy development, resource allocation, and strategic planning.

Key Highlights:

Total enrollment decreased by 2.52% compared to SY 2023-24, continuing a two-year decline following the post-pandemic peak of SY 2022-23
The public sector dominates with 85.39% of national enrollment across 79.78% of schools
Gender Parity Index (GPI) varies significantly across educational levels, with elementary showing moderate male advantage (GPI: 0.928) while Senior High School favors females (GPI: 1.016)
Region IV-A (CALABARZON) leads in enrollment share (14.67%), followed by Region III (11.02%) and NCR (10.47%)
Senior High School demonstrates the strongest long-term growth (CAGR: +5.54%) despite recent year-over-year decline
Technical-Vocational-Livelihood (TVL) remains the most popular SHS strand at 29.31%, followed by HUMSS (27.24%)

Critical Policy Implications:

The sustained enrollment decline in Kindergarten (CAGR: -3.04%) warrants immediate attention for early childhood education policy. Additionally, the highly right-skewed school size distribution (skewness: 5.50) suggests significant inequality in educational infrastructure that may impact service delivery quality.

1. National Enrollment Overview

The Philippines enrolled 26,400,182 learners across all K-12 levels in School Year 2024-25, representing a 2.52% decline from the previous year's 27,081,292. This enrollment figure is distributed across four educational levels with varying proportions that reflect the structural design of the K-12 curriculum.

Total Enrollment by Level — Figure 1: Total enrollment by educational level showing distribution across Kindergarten, Elementary, Junior High, and Senior High School - SY 2024-25

Table 1.1: National Enrollment by Educational Level (SY 2024-25)

Level	Total Enrollment	Percentage	Male	Female	GPI
Kindergarten	1,827,258	6.92%	945,359	881,899	0.9329
Elementary	12,921,506	48.94%	6,701,861	6,219,645	0.9280
Junior High	7,665,606	29.04%	3,852,631	3,812,975	0.9897
Senior High	3,985,812	15.10%	1,977,215	2,008,597	1.0159
Total	26,400,182	100%	13,477,066	12,923,116	0.9589

Elementary education accounts for nearly half of all enrollment (48.94%), consistent with the six-year duration of this level compared to four years for Junior High and two years for Senior High. The Kindergarten enrollment at 6.92% represents a single-year cohort, though the figure of 1,827,258 shows notable decline from previous years, warranting attention for early childhood education access.

Enrollment by Grade and Gender — Figure 2: National enrollment by grade level showing male and female distribution from Kindergarten through Grade 12 - SY 2024-25

The grade-level progression reveals interesting enrollment patterns. Grade 6 (2,275,353) shows peak enrollment in elementary, while Grade 7 (2,141,724) maintains strong numbers as learners transition to secondary education. A notable observation is the enrollment dip in Grade 8 (1,746,152) compared to surrounding grades, which may reflect retention challenges or late enrollment patterns.

2. Gender Distribution & Parity Analysis

Gender equity in education remains a critical development indicator. The national Gender Parity Index (GPI) of 0.9589 indicates a slight male advantage in overall enrollment, with 13,477,066 male learners compared to 12,923,116 female learners.

Gender Distribution Pie Chart — Figure 3: Overall gender distribution showing the proportion of male (51.05%) and female (48.95%) learners - SY 2024-25

GPI Interpretation Framework:

GPI = 1.0: Perfect gender parity
GPI 0.97-1.03: Near parity (acceptable range)
GPI 0.90-1.10: Moderate disparity
GPI < 0.90 or > 1.10: Significant gender imbalance

GPI by Educational Level — Figure 4: Gender Parity Index by educational level with reference line at GPI = 1.0 - SY 2024-25

Table 2.1: Gender Parity Analysis by Educational Level

Level	Male	Female	GPI	Status
Kindergarten	945,359	881,899	0.9329	Moderate Disparity
Elementary	6,701,861	6,219,645	0.9280	Moderate Disparity
Junior High	3,852,631	3,812,975	0.9897	Near Parity
Senior High	1,977,215	2,008,597	1.0159	Near Parity

A significant pattern emerges: gender parity improves as educational level increases. Kindergarten and Elementary show moderate male advantage (GPI: 0.93), while Junior High approaches parity (GPI: 0.99). Senior High School actually reverses the pattern with slight female advantage (GPI: 1.02), suggesting that females demonstrate stronger educational retention in secondary education. This phenomenon aligns with global patterns where female educational attainment often exceeds males at higher levels, though the elementary-level disparity warrants policy attention to ensure equal access for girls in early education.

3. School Sector Analysis

The Philippine basic education system operates through four school sectors: Public, Private, State/Local Universities and Colleges (SUC/LUC), and Philippine Schools Overseas (PSO). The public sector maintains overwhelming dominance in both school count and enrollment.

Number of Schools by Sector — Figure 5: Distribution of schools by sector showing public sector dominanceSY 2024-25

Table 3.1: School Sector Distribution

Sector	Schools	% of Schools	Enrollment	% of Enrollment	Avg Size
Public	47,972	79.78%	22,543,711	85.39%	470
Private	11,939	19.86%	3,750,251	14.21%	314
SUC/LUC	183	0.30%	81,365	0.31%	445
PSO	35	0.06%	24,855	0.09%	710

Enrollment by Sector — Figure 6: Total enrollment distribution across school sectors - SY 2024-25

Average School Size by Sector — Figure 7: Average school size by sector, with PSO showing highest average (710) - SY 2024-25

The public sector's share of enrollment (85.39%) exceeds its share of schools (79.78%), indicating that public schools are generally larger on average (470 students) compared to private schools (314 students). This pattern reflects the public sector's mandate to provide universal access, often resulting in higher enrollment densities. Philippine Schools Overseas (PSO) demonstrate the highest average school size (710), reflecting the concentrated Filipino diaspora communities they serve.

4. Regional Enrollment Distribution

Regional analysis reveals significant geographic concentration of enrollment, with three regions (IV-A, III, and NCR) accounting for over one-third of national enrollment. This pattern reflects population distribution and urbanization trends across the archipelago.

Regional Share of National Enrollment — Figure 8: Regional share of national enrollment showing concentration in CALABARZON, Central Luzon, and NCR - SY 2024-25

Table 4.1: Top 10 Regions by Enrollment

Region	Enrollment	% of National	Schools	Avg Size	GPI
Region IV-A	3,871,761	14.67%	6,011	644	0.9499
Region III	2,908,517	11.02%	5,193	560	0.9536
NCR	2,763,471	10.47%	2,541	1,088	0.9605
Region V	1,672,003	6.33%	4,481	373	0.9467
Region VII	1,660,969	6.29%	3,589	463	0.9412
Region XI	1,345,342	5.10%	2,706	497	0.9653
Region X	1,303,187	4.94%	3,109	419	0.9696
NIR	1,216,279	4.61%	2,732	445	0.9551
Region I	1,198,291	4.54%	3,391	353	0.9419
Region VIII	1,175,013	4.45%	4,480	262	0.9536

Average School Size by Region — Figure 9: Average school size by region, with NCR showing highest density (1,088) - SY 2024-25

Figure 10: Regional Gender Parity Index comparison with reference line at GPI = 1.0 - SY 2024-25

NCR's dramatically higher average school size (1,088) compared to other regions reflects the urban density and limited land availability in Metro Manila. Conversely, Region VIII (262) and CAR (201) show smaller average sizes due to the prevalence of small, geographically dispersed schools serving rural communities.

Regional Enrollment by Level Heatmap — Figure 11: Regional enrollment distribution by level showing percentage breakdown - SY 2024-25

BARMM presents a notably different profile with higher Kindergarten (10.6%) and Elementary (57.1%) concentrations but significantly lower Junior High (22.2%) and Senior High (10.0%) shares compared to national averages. This pattern suggests challenges in educational retention beyond elementary level in the Bangsamoro region, presenting an important area for targeted policy intervention.

5. Provincial & Division Analysis

The analysis at the division level provides more granular insights into enrollment distribution. The largest school division (Cebu) serves 609,702 learners, while urban divisions like Manila and Caloocan City show significantly higher school density ratios.

Divisions Share of National Enrollment — Figure 18: Top divisions by share of national enrollment - SY 2024-25

Divisions by School Count — Figure 19: School divisions with highest number of schools - SY 2024-25

Table 5.1: Top 15 Divisions by Enrollment

Division	Enrollment	% of National	Schools	Avg Size
Cebu	609,702	2.31%	1,355	450
Quezon City	597,699	2.26%	599	998
Rizal	576,047	2.18%	703	819
Bulacan	562,202	2.13%	797	705
Cavite	496,963	1.88%	622	799
Quezon	476,132	1.80%	1,131	421
Camarines Sur	473,702	1.79%	1,284	369
Davao City	458,410	1.74%	651	704
Iloilo	456,291	1.73%	1,393	328
Batangas	402,244	1.52%	915	440
Pampanga	386,632	1.46%	718	538
Manila	367,119	1.39%	283	1,297
Leyte	366,962	1.39%	1,372	267
Nueva Ecija	362,680	1.37%	896	405
Caloocan City	343,343	1.30%	261	1,315

Provinces Share of National Enrollment — Figure 20: Top provinces by share of national enrollment - SY 2024-25

Urban divisions (Manila: 1,297 average; Caloocan City: 1,315) demonstrate substantially larger school sizes, reflecting the population concentration and limited expansion options in highly urbanized areas. This creates classroom density challenges that may impact educational quality.

6. Municipality-Level Analysis

Municipality-level analysis provides the finest geographic granularity for understanding enrollment distribution and school infrastructure patterns.

Top 30 Municipalities by Enrollment — Figure 43: Top 30 municipalities by total enrollment - SY 2024-25

Municipality School Density — Figure 44: School density analysis showing schools per 10,000 students by municipality - SY 2024-25

Municipality Average School Size — Figure 45: Average school size distribution across municipalities - SY 2024-25

The school density metric (schools per 10,000 students) serves as a useful proxy for educational access. Municipalities with higher density ratios generally offer better geographic accessibility, though this must be balanced against considerations of school size efficiency and resource allocation optimization.

7. Grade-Level Enrollment Progression

Understanding enrollment patterns across the complete K-12 continuum is essential for identifying retention challenges and transition bottlenecks.

Figure 23: Complete K-12 enrollment profile from Kindergarten through Grade 12 - SY 2024-25

Table 7.1: Complete K-12 Grade-Level Enrollment

Grade	Male	Female	Total	GPI
Kindergarten	945,359	881,899	1,827,258	0.9329
Grade 1	1,077,847	992,511	2,070,358	0.9208
Grade 2	1,106,395	1,024,629	2,131,024	0.9261
Grade 3	1,135,722	1,057,309	2,193,031	0.9310
Grade 4	1,115,182	1,046,132	2,161,314	0.9381
Grade 5	1,047,613	953,273	2,000,886	0.9099
Grade 6	1,159,027	1,116,326	2,275,353	0.9632
Grade 7	1,091,064	1,050,660	2,141,724	0.9630
Grade 8	887,277	858,875	1,746,152	0.9680
Grade 9	931,270	936,244	1,867,514	1.0053
Grade 10	939,840	965,179	1,905,019	1.0270
Grade 11	1,012,891	1,028,710	2,041,601	1.0156
Grade 12	964,324	979,887	1,944,211	1.0161

Elementary School Progression — Figure 21: Elementary school enrollment progression from Kindergarten through Grade 6 - SY 2024-25

JHS Progression — Figure 22: Junior High School enrollment progression from Grade 7 through Grade 10 - SY 2024-25

Grade-to-Grade Transition Ratios — Figure 24: Grade-to-grade enrollment transition ratios (2023-24 to 2024-25)SY 2024-25

Table 7.2: Cohort Progression Ratios (SY 2023-24 → 2024-25)

Transition	Progression Ratio	Status
K→G1	101.12%	Normal
G1→G2	98.60%	Normal
G2→G3	99.41%	Normal
G3→G4	98.99%	Normal
G4→G5	98.59%	Normal
G5→G6	98.51%	Normal
G6→G7	98.09%	Normal
G7→G8	96.57%	Normal
G8→G9	96.26%	Normal
G9→G10	95.62%	Normal

The progression ratios show generally strong retention, though Junior High School exhibits slightly lower ratios (95-97%) compared to Elementary (98-99%). The G9→G10 transition at 95.62% represents the lowest progression rate, suggesting this grade level may benefit from additional retention support interventions.

Note: These progression ratios compare aggregate enrollment counts between school years, not individual student tracking. They provide directional indicators of system-wide retention patterns rather than precise cohort survival rates.

8. Senior High School Track & Strand Analysis

Senior High School (SHS), covering Grades 11-12, offers multiple academic tracks and strands allowing learners to specialize based on interests and career goals. The enrollment distribution across these pathways provides insights into student preferences and potential workforce pipeline development.

SHS Enrollment by Strand Pie Chart — Figure 12: SHS enrollment distribution by track/strand showing TVL and HUMSS dominance - SY 2024-25

SHS Students by Strand Bar Chart — Figure 13: Total SHS students by track/strand in absolute numbers - SY 2024-25

Table 8.1: SHS Enrollment by Track/Strand

Strand	Total	Male	Female	GPI	% of SHS
TVL	1,168,349	719,169	449,180	0.6246	29.31%
HUMSS	1,085,575	504,583	580,992	1.1514	27.24%
STEM	786,711	357,053	429,658	1.2033	19.74%
GAS	500,915	242,438	258,477	1.0662	12.57%
ABM	412,369	135,708	276,661	2.0386	10.35%
Arts & Design	19,429	8,230	11,199	1.3608	0.49%
Sports	7,326	5,270	2,056	0.3901	0.18%
Maritime	5,053	4,737	316	0.0667	0.13%
Unique	85	27	58	2.1481	0.00%
Total	3,985,812	1,977,215	2,008,597	1.0159	100%

Gender Distribution by SHS Strand — Figure 14: Gender distribution across SHS strands showing distinct patternsSY 2024-25

GPI by SHS Strand — Figure 15: Gender Parity Index by SHS track/strand revealing significant gender segregation - SY 2024-25

Significant Gender Patterns in SHS:

SHS strands exhibit pronounced gender segregation that reflects broader societal patterns and may require policy attention:

Female-dominated strands: ABM (GPI: 2.04), STEM (GPI: 1.20), HUMSS (GPI: 1.15)
Male-dominated strands: Maritime (GPI: 0.07), Sports (GPI: 0.39), TVL (GPI: 0.62)

The extremely low female participation in Maritime (GPI: 0.07) reflects the male-dominated maritime industry, while ABM's high female concentration (GPI: 2.04) aligns with traditional gender roles in business administration fields. Notably, STEM shows a slight female advantage (GPI: 1.20), contradicting common perceptions of STEM as male-dominated at the secondary level.

9. School Characteristics Analysis

Beyond sector classification, schools vary in management type, annex status, and curricular offerings. These characteristics impact resource allocation, administrative structure, and educational service delivery.

Schools by Management Type — Figure 26: Distribution of schools by management type - SY 2024-25

Average Enrollment by Management Type — Figure 27: Average enrollment by school management type - SY 2024-25

Schools by Annex Status — Figure 28: Distribution of schools by annex status (Standalone, Mother, Annex) - SY 2024-25

Average Size by Annex Status — Figure 29: Average school size by annex status - SY 2024-25

Schools by Curricular Offerings — Figure 30: Schools categorized by curricular offerings (K-12 Complete, ES Only, etc.) - SY 2024-25

Average Enrollment by Curricular Offerings — Figure 31: Average enrollment by curricular offering pattern - SY 2024-25

Schools with complete K-12 offerings (Elementary through Senior High) tend to be larger, reflecting their comprehensive service model. Elementary-only schools remain numerous but smaller on average, serving localized community needs especially in rural and remote areas.

10. School Size Distribution & Outlier Analysis

The distribution of school sizes provides critical insights into the educational infrastructure landscape. Understanding size variation helps inform resource allocation and identify schools requiring specialized support.

Table 10.1: School Size Category Distribution

Size Category	Schools	% of Schools	Enrollment	Avg Enrollment
Very Small (<100)	14,360	23.88%	789,395	55
Small (100-299)	23,622	39.29%	4,289,801	182
Medium (300-599)	11,309	18.81%	4,734,660	419
Large (600-999)	4,856	8.08%	3,705,462	763
Very Large (1000+)	5,982	9.95%	12,880,864	2,153

School Size Distribution — Figure 16: School size category distribution showing prevalence of small schools - SY 2024-25

Enrollment Distribution Histogram — Figure 17: Enrollment distribution histogram showing right-skewed pattern - SY 2024-25

Table 10.2: Statistical Distribution Metrics

Metric	Value
Mean Enrollment	439.06
Median Enrollment	206.00
Mode	70
Standard Deviation	755.56
Coefficient of Variation	172.09%
Skewness	5.4951
Kurtosis	47.7765
Range	17,064
IQR	340

The substantial difference between mean (439) and median (206) enrollment, combined with high positive skewness (5.50) and kurtosis (47.78), indicates a highly right-skewed distribution. A small number of very large schools significantly influence the average, while the majority of schools are relatively small.

Enrollment Boxplot with Outliers — Figure 32: Enrollment distribution boxplot showing outliers beyond 1.5×IQR bounds - SY 2024-25

Histogram with Outlier Bounds — Figure 33: Enrollment histogram with IQR-based outlier bounds indicated - SY 2024-25

Outlier Analysis (IQR Method):

Lower Bound: -407 (effectively 0)
Upper Bound: 953
Schools classified as outliers: 6,297 (10.47%)
Largest school enrollment: 17,064
Smallest school enrollment: 0

Outlier Rate by Sector — Figure 34: Outlier rate by school sector - SY 2024-25

10 Largest Schools — Figure 35: Top 10 largest schools by enrollment - SY 2024-25

10 Smallest Schools — Figure 36: Schools with lowest non-zero enrollment - SY 2024-25

11. Time Series Analysis & Historical Trends

Longitudinal analysis of enrollment data from SY 2017-18 through 2024-25 reveals important trends in Philippine basic education participation.

Total Enrollment Trend 2017-2025 — Figure 37: Total enrollment trend from SY 2017-18 to 2024-25 showing pandemic impact and recovery - SY 2024-25

Table 11.1: Historical Enrollment Summary

School Year	Total Enrollment	YoY Change	Schools
2017-18	26,311,949	-	61,563
2018-19	27,018,509	+2.69%	61,916
2019-20	27,030,391	+0.04%	61,923
2020-21	26,227,022	-2.97%	60,957
2021-22	27,560,661	+5.08%	60,429
2022-23	27,794,282	+0.85%	60,137
2023-24	27,081,292	-2.57%	60,167
2024-25	26,400,182	-2.52%	60,129

Enrollment by Level Trends — Figure 38: Enrollment trends by educational level showing divergent patternsSY 2024-25

Year-over-Year Growth Rate — Figure 39: Year-over-year growth rate by educational level - SY 2024-25

CAGR by Level — Figure 40: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) by educational level from 2017-18 to 2024-25 - SY 2024-25

Table 11.2: Compound Annual Growth Rate (2017-18 to 2024-25)

Level	CAGR	Start Value	End Value	Net Change
Total	+0.05%	26,311,949	26,400,182	+88,233
Kindergarten	-3.04%	2,268,455	1,827,258	-441,197
Elementary	-0.61%	13,483,620	12,921,506	-562,114
Junior High	-0.30%	7,826,414	7,665,606	-160,808
Senior High	+5.54%	2,733,460	3,985,812	+1,252,352

Critical Finding: Senior High School is the only level showing positive CAGR (+5.54%), while Kindergarten exhibits the steepest decline (-3.04%). This divergence reflects both demographic shifts and the relative maturity of the SHS program since its 2016 introduction.

Cohort Retention Rates — Figure 41: Cohort progression ratios across grade transitions - SY 2024-25

Student Leakage Analysis — Figure 42: Student leakage analysis at critical transition points - SY 2024-25

12. Sector × Region Cross-Tabulation

The intersection of sector and region provides nuanced understanding of educational access patterns across geographic areas.

Sector Share by Region Heatmap — Figure 46: Sector share of enrollment by region heatmap - SY 2024-25

Sector Share of Schools by Region — Figure 47: Sector share of schools by region - SY 2024-25

Private Sector Dominance by Region — Figure 48: Private sector dominance index by region - SY 2024-25

NCR demonstrates the highest private sector presence, reflecting the concentration of private educational institutions in urban areas with higher household income levels. In contrast, regions like BARMM, CAR, and CARAGA show minimal private sector participation, with public schools serving the overwhelming majority of learners.

13. Data Quality & Zero-Enrollment Report

Maintaining data integrity is essential for accurate analysis and policy development. The zero-enrollment report identifies schools flagged in the data system with no recorded students.

Zero Enrollment Schools by Region — Figure 49: Distribution of zero-enrollment schools by region - SY 2024-25

Schools reporting zero enrollment may indicate data submission issues, newly established schools not yet operational, or schools temporarily closed. These cases require verification to ensure data accuracy and appropriate resource allocation.

14. Concentration Metrics

Enrollment concentration metrics help understand inequality in educational distribution across geographic and administrative units.

Gini Coefficient Interpretation:

< 0.4: Low inequality
0.4-0.6: Moderate inequality
0.6: High inequality

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) Interpretation:

< 0.15: Low concentration (competitive)
0.15-0.25: Moderate concentration
0.25: High concentration

Gini Coefficient by Region — Figure 50: Gini coefficient of enrollment concentration by region - SY 2024-25

HHI by Division — Figure 51: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by division - SY 2024-25

Higher Gini values indicate greater enrollment inequality within a region, suggesting a few large schools serve disproportionate shares of learners while many smaller schools serve limited populations. This pattern may reflect geographic constraints or historical development patterns requiring attention for equitable resource distribution.

15. Statistical Significance Tests

Statistical tests confirm whether observed differences between groups are significant or could occur by chance.

Effect Size Visualization — Figure 52: Cohen's d effect sizes for enrollment differences between sectorsSY 2024-25

Mann-Whitney U Test: Public vs. Private Enrollment

The Mann-Whitney U test (non-parametric alternative to t-test) compares enrollment distributions between public and private schools. Results indicate statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), confirming that enrollment patterns differ meaningfully between sectors.

Kruskal-Wallis H Test: Enrollment Across All Sectors

This test extends comparison across all four sectors (Public, Private, SUC/LUC, PSO). Significant results (p < 0.001) indicate at least one sector differs substantially from others.

Cohen's d Effect Size Interpretation:

|d| < 0.2: Negligible
0.2 ≤ |d| < 0.5: Small
0.5 ≤ |d| < 0.8: Medium
|d| ≥ 0.8: Large

The Public-Private comparison yields a small-to-medium effect size, indicating practical significance in enrollment differences beyond statistical significance.

16. Philippine Schools Overseas (PSO) Analysis

Philippine Schools Overseas serve Filipino communities abroad, maintaining educational continuity for overseas Filipino families.

Table 16.1: PSO Enrollment by Country

Country	Enrollment	Schools	Avg Size
United Arab Emirates	10,310	10	1,031
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia	6,046	14	432
Qatar	5,631	2	2,816
Kingdom of Bahrain	1,042	1	1,042
State of Kuwait	1,009	2	504
Sultanate of Oman	377	1	377
Italy	163	2	82
Cambodia	106	1	106
East Timor	98	1	98
Greece	73	1	73

PSO Enrollment by Level — Figure 54: PSO enrollment distribution by educational level - SY 2024-25

PSO vs Domestic Average Enrollment — Figure 55: PSO compared to domestic average enrollment - SY 2024-25

PSO vs Domestic GPI — Figure 56: PSO compared to domestic Gender Parity Index - SY 2024-25

The Middle East hosts the majority of PSO enrollment, reflecting the concentration of Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. PSO schools show higher average size (710) compared to domestic schools (439), driven by concentrated Filipino populations in specific overseas locations.

17. Cluster Analysis

K-Means cluster analysis (k=5) groups schools based on enrollment characteristics, revealing distinct institutional profiles.

School Cluster Analysis — Figure 57: School cluster analysis scatter plot - SY 2024-25

Table 17.1: Cluster Summary Statistics

Cluster	Schools	Total Enrollment	Avg Enrollment	Median
Cluster 0	51,678	11,580,309	224	171
Cluster 1	495	2,643,232	5,340	4,702
Cluster 2	610	2,220,515	3,640	3,204
Cluster 3	3,101	5,179,847	1,670	1,480
Cluster 4	4,245	4,776,279	1,125	996

Cluster Composition by Sector — Figure 58: Cluster composition by sector - SY 2024-25

Educational Levels by Cluster — Figure 59: Educational levels offered by cluster - SY 2024-25

Enrollment Distribution by Cluster — Figure 60: Enrollment distribution by cluster - SY 2024-25

GPI by Cluster — Figure 61: Gender Parity Index by cluster - SY 2024-25

Cluster Profiles:

Cluster 0 (Majority): 51,678 small schools averaging 224 students; predominantly elementary-only public schools
Cluster 1 (Mega Schools): 495 very large schools (avg: 5,340) typically offering complete K-12 with strong JHS/SHS presence
Cluster 2 (Large Elementary): 610 large elementary-focused schools averaging 3,640 students
Cluster 3 (Comprehensive Secondary): 3,101 schools averaging 1,670 students with strong JHS/SHS offerings
Cluster 4 (Medium Elementary+): 4,245 medium-large schools (avg: 1,125) with complete elementary programs

18. Enrollment Forecasting

Exponential smoothing applied to historical enrollment data generates projections for the coming school years.

Table 18.1: Enrollment Forecast (3-Year Projection)

Year	Enrollment	Type
2024-25	26,400,182	Historical
2025-26	26,884,359	Forecast
2026-27	26,690,688	Forecast
2027-28	26,574,486	Forecast

The forecast suggests modest enrollment recovery in SY 2025-26 followed by gradual stabilization. However, these projections carry uncertainty given volatile recent trends and should be interpreted as directional estimates rather than precise predictions.

19. Key Findings & Policy Recommendations

Critical Findings Summary

Enrollment Decline: Total enrollment declined 2.52% year-over-year, with consecutive declines since the SY 2022-23 peak. This trend warrants monitoring and investigation into underlying causes.
Kindergarten Crisis: The most severe decline occurs in Kindergarten (CAGR: -3.04%), representing over 440,000 fewer learners compared to 2017-18. This has implications for future enrollment pipelines across all levels.
Senior High Growth: SHS remains the sole growth area (CAGR: +5.54%), adding over 1.25 million learners since 2017-18, indicating successful program maturation.
Gender Patterns:
- Elementary and Kindergarten show moderate male advantage (GPI: 0.93)
- GPI improves progressively through educational levels
- SHS strands exhibit pronounced gender segregation, particularly Maritime (GPI: 0.07) and ABM (GPI: 2.04)
Geographic Concentration: Three regions (IV-A, III, NCR) account for 36% of national enrollment, reflecting urbanization patterns requiring differentiated resource strategies.
Infrastructure Inequality: High skewness (5.50) in school size distribution indicates substantial inequality in educational infrastructure, with 10.47% of schools classified as statistical outliers.
BARMM Educational Gap: The Bangsamoro region shows notably lower secondary education participation (JHS: 22.2%, SHS: 10.0%) compared to national averages, requiring targeted intervention.

Policy Recommendations

Immediate Priorities:

Early Childhood Education Initiative: Investigate causes of Kindergarten enrollment decline and implement targeted outreach programs to improve early education participation.
Gender Equity Programs: Develop strand-specific interventions to address gender imbalances in SHS, particularly encouraging female participation in TVL, Maritime, and Sports tracks.
BARMM Secondary Education Support: Implement specialized programs to improve JHS and SHS retention in BARMM, addressing barriers specific to the Bangsamoro context.

Medium-Term Actions:

School Size Optimization: Conduct comprehensive analysis of outlier schools to identify appropriate interventions—whether expansion for overcrowded schools or consolidation for underutilized facilities.
Private Sector Engagement: Develop public-private partnership frameworks for regions with limited private educational options, enhancing choice and capacity.
Data Quality Enhancement: Implement verification protocols for zero-enrollment schools and ensure accurate reporting across all divisions.

Long-Term Strategic Considerations:

Infrastructure Planning: Use cluster analysis findings to develop differentiated infrastructure investment strategies based on school profiles.
Demographic Alignment: Align educational planning with PSA population projections to anticipate enrollment shifts driven by demographic changes.
Quality-Access Balance: As enrollment stabilizes or declines, shift focus toward educational quality improvements while maintaining access in underserved areas.

20. Appendix: Chart Index

Core Enrollment Charts (Figures 1-25)

Figure	Description	Filename
1	Total enrollment by educational level	chart_01_total_enrollment_by_level_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
2	Enrollment by grade level and gender	chart_02_enrollment_by_grade_gender_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
3	Overall gender distribution pie chart	chart_03_gender_distribution_pie_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
4	Gender Parity Index by educational level	chart_04_gpi_by_level_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
5	Number of schools by sector	chart_05_schools_by_sector_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
6	Total enrollment by sector	chart_06_enrollment_by_sector_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
7	Average school size by sector	chart_07_avg_school_size_by_sector_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
8	Regional share of national enrollment	chart_08_regional_enrollment_benchmarked_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
9	Average school size by region	chart_09_avg_school_size_by_region_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
10	Regional Gender Parity Index	chart_10_regional_gpi_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
11	Regional enrollment distribution by level	chart_11_regional_level_heatmap_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
12	SHS enrollment by strand (pie)	chart_12_shs_strands_pie_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
13	SHS students by strand (bar)	chart_13_shs_strands_bar_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
14	Gender distribution by SHS strand	chart_14_shs_gender_by_strand_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
15	GPI by SHS track/strand	chart_15_shs_gpi_by_strand_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
16	School size category distribution	chart_16_school_size_distribution_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
17	Enrollment distribution histogram	chart_17_enrollment_histogram_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
18	Divisions by national enrollment share	chart_18_divisions_share_of_national_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
19	Divisions by school count	chart_19_divisions_by_school_count_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
20	Provinces by national enrollment share	chart_20_provinces_share_of_national_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
21	Elementary enrollment progression	chart_21_elementary_progression_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
22	JHS enrollment progression	chart_22_jhs_progression_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
23	Complete K-12 enrollment profile	chart_23_k12_complete_profile_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
24	Grade-to-grade transition ratios	chart_24_enrollment_transition_ratios_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
25	Enrollment correlation matrix	chart_25_correlation_matrix_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

School Characteristics (Figures 26-31)

Figure	Description	Filename
26	Schools by management type	chart_26a_schools_by_management_type_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
27	Average enrollment by management type	chart_26b_avg_enrollment_by_management_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
28	Schools by annex status	chart_27a_schools_by_annex_status_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
29	Average size by annex status	chart_27b_avg_size_by_annex_status_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
30	Schools by curricular offerings	chart_28a_schools_by_curricular_offerings_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
31	Average enrollment by offerings	chart_28b_avg_enrollment_by_offerings_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Outlier Detection (Figures 32-36)

Figure	Description	Filename
32	Enrollment distribution boxplot	chart_29a_enrollment_boxplot_with_outliers_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
33	Histogram with outlier bounds	chart_29b_enrollment_histogram_with_bounds_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
34	Outlier rate by sector	chart_29c_outlier_rate_by_sector_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
35	10 largest schools	chart_29d_largest_schools_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
36	10 smallest schools	chart_29e_smallest_schools_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Time Series Analysis (Figures 37-42)

Figure	Description	Filename
37	Total enrollment trend (2017-2025)	chart_30a_total_enrollment_trend_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
38	Enrollment trends by level	chart_30b_enrollment_by_level_trends_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
39	Year-over-year growth rate	chart_30c_yoy_growth_rate_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
40	CAGR by educational level	chart_30d_cagr_by_level_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
41	Cohort progression ratios	chart_31a_cohort_retention_rates_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
42	Student leakage analysis	chart_31b_student_leakage_analysis_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Municipality Analysis (Figures 43-45)

Figure	Description	Filename
43	Top 30 municipalities by enrollment	chart_32a_municipality_enrollment_top30_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
44	Municipality school density	chart_32b_municipality_school_density_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
45	Municipality average school size	chart_32c_municipality_avg_school_size_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Sector × Region (Figures 46-48)

Figure	Description	Filename
46	Sector share by region (heatmap)	chart_33a_sector_region_heatmap_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
47	Sector share of schools by region	chart_33b_sector_region_schools_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
48	Private sector dominance by region	chart_33c_private_dominance_by_region_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Data Quality & Concentration (Figures 49-52)

Figure	Description	Filename
49	Zero-enrollment schools by region	chart_34_zero_enrollment_by_region_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
50	Gini coefficient by region	chart_35_gini_by_region_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
51	HHI by division	chart_36_hhi_by_division_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
52	Effect sizes between sectors	chart_37_effect_size_visualization_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

PSO Analysis (Figures 53-56)

Figure	Description	Filename
53	PSO enrollment by country	chart_38a_pso_overview_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
54	PSO enrollment by level	chart_38b_pso_level_distribution_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
55	PSO vs domestic average enrollment	chart_38c1_pso_avg_enrollment_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
56	PSO vs domestic GPI comparison	chart_38c2_pso_gpi_comparison_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Cluster Analysis (Figures 57-61)

Figure	Description	Filename
57	School cluster analysis scatter plot	chart_39_school_clusters_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
58	Cluster composition by sector	chart_40a_cluster_sector_composition_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
59	Educational levels by cluster	chart_40b_cluster_levels_offered_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
60	Enrollment distribution by cluster	chart_40c_cluster_enrollment_distribution_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png
61	GPI by cluster	chart_40d_cluster_gpi_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Forecasting (Figure 62)

Figure	Description	Filename
62	Enrollment trend and forecast	chart_41_enrollment_forecast_DepEd-Enrollment-SY2024-25-Nash-Reviewer.png

Data Sources & Methodology Notes

Data Source: DepEd Enhanced Basic Education Information System (EBEIS) - Learner Information System (LIS)
Coverage: 60,129 schools serving 26,400,182 learners (SY 2024-25)
Historical Data: SY 2017-18 through 2024-25

Technical Notes:

Non-graded students (ESNG, JHSNG) are included in Elementary and JHS totals respectively
GPI Calculation: Female enrollment ÷ Male enrollment (1.0 = parity)
Progression ratios compare aggregate enrollment between school years (not individual student tracking)
Outlier identification uses IQR method (below Q1 - 1.5×IQR or above Q3 + 1.5×IQR)
Gini coefficient: 0 = perfect equality, 1 = perfect inequality
HHI: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index; <0.15 = low concentration, 0.15-0.25 = moderate, >0.25 = high
Cluster analysis uses K-Means (k=5) on standardized enrollment features
Forecasting uses simple exponential smoothing (α=0.4)